Tuesday preview: UK labour market, Glencore in the spotlight


All eyes on Tuesday will be on the UK labour market with the rate of unemployment expected to have held steady at 4.1%.

Headline average weekly earnings meanwhile are expected to have increased at a quarterly and year-on-year pace of 3.8% over the three months ending in December.

However, Barclays Research points out that would equate to a 1.7% drop in inflation adjusted terms, for the lowest rate of growth in almost nine years due to the cost of living headwinds.

Stateside meanwhile, the market spotlight will be on a report on factory gate prices for the month of January, with the annual rate of increase expected to ebb from 9.8% to 8.9%.

If confirmed, that would be indicate of some easing in pipeline price pressures.

Across the Channel, the main economic release will be the ZEW institute’s economic sentiment gauge for Germany referencing the month of February.

On the corporate side of things meanwhile, Glencore is due to release its full-year 2021 results.

UBS analyst Myles Allsop had penciled-in a 41% jump in sales at the commodities trader for earnings per share of US 70 cents.

In particular, it noted “modest” downside risk to the consensus for the company’s dividend payments, given Glencore’s new “top up” policy.

Hence, proceeds from the disposals that completed in January and February would not yet be returned to shareholders, rather in June.

On the flip-side, the analyst did see the possibility that cash returns might be supplemented by disposals.

At its investor update in December, the company said that 10 processes were ongoing with 15 more assets under review.

Production guidance on the other hand was likely to remain unchanged, he said.

Allsop also described Glencore’s valuation at normalised commodity prices “attractive” the risk/reward as “relatively attractive” and pointed to potential catalysts such as a potential DoJ resolution and disposals.

Tuesday 15 February

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

ZEW Survey (EU) – Economic Sentiment (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) – Current Situation (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) – Economic Sentiment (10:00)

FINALS

Glencore , Plus500 Ltd (DI), RM

AGMS

Dewhurst, Nexus Infrastructure

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Softline Holding GDR (REG S)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Claimant Count Rate (07:00)

Unemployment Rate (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Euromoney Institutional Investor