Bitcoin made greater than expected profits for its investors in the last two years; more than any other investment. However, as the largest cryptocurrency was now seen retracing from its all-time high of $69,000, the year-end predictions of many analysts are foreseeing a bearish outlook. The latest person to call for a declining market was the co-founder of Huobi, a cryptocurrency exchange.
According to his latest interview, Du Jun noted that he did not see a bull market making its way until 2024 or the beginning of 2025. This analysis by the co-founder was done taking into consideration the previous cycles and was closely tied to Bitcoin halving, which takes place after each set of 210,000 blocks is mined and halves the rewards of mining. This occurs roughly every four years.
For instance, when the latest halving took place in May 2020, the Bitcoin network suffered and consolidated for a while, but was sent to the moon in 2021. It reached an all-time high above $68,000. The result of the halving in 2016 was also the same.
Du Jun therefore noted,
“It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market.”
However, what was happening in the spot market was not something new after a bull run.
Currently, the value of Bitcoin sits 40% under its record high in November and the next halving is expected to take place in 2024. If the previous trends associated with the Bitcoin market are considered, we’re in the early stages of a market correction or as Ju called it the bear market.
“Following this cycle, it won’t be until the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 that we can welcome the next bull market on bitcoin.”
The latest cycle saw many people’s prediction of “bitcoin to $100k” fail and how. However, the largest asset will hit this market as per chartist Plan B but only in 2023.
Plan B’s ‘Stock-to-Flow’ [S2F] model has been a reliable indicator to understand Bitcoin price deviation. However, since March 2021, the S2F model has failed to deliver accurate predictions. While global uncertainties and changing market scenarios could be a reason for this, Plan B predicted $100k in 2023 was still on the cards.
As Plan B tweeted,
This prediction also came with the trigger that could be the Bitcoin halving. While, the estimate of when the halving could take place differs, it can be noted that we were entering the crypto winter. It’s time for the HODLers to hibernate and set an auto-buy option for when Bitcoin starts feeling the Winter blues.