Chicago PMI craters in November


Manufacturing sector activity in the Chicago registered an outsized slump in November, the results of a survey revealed.

Market News International‘s Chicago factory sector Purchasing Managers’ index cratered to a reading of 37.2.

That was down from an October print of 45.2 and well below economists’ forecasts for a reading of 47.0.

Subindices for production, new orders and employment all fell to their June 2020 lows, the survey compiler said.

Only the subindices for inventories and price paid remained in expansionary territory while those for employment and inventories were the only ones to register upticks.

The new orders gauge fell by 8.5 points to 30.7 and that for output by 9.2 points to 35.9.

Another sub-index linked to supplier deliveries did fall by 9.4 points to 49.9, reflecting an easing in bottlenecks.

The sub-index for prices paid meanwhile dropped by 8.6 points to 66.2.

Commenting on the latest Chicago PMI reading, Pantheon Macroeconomics‘s Ian Shepherdson pointed out that the monthly readings were “extremely noisy” and the samples “small”.

He bumped down his forecast for the national level factory PMI due out the next day from 50.2 – which would have been unchanged versus the month before – to 49.0.

“We can’t ignore it entirely, though […] The effects of tighter monetary policy have yet to be fully absorbed, so it seems likely that the manufacturing surveys will weaken even further in the months ahead.”